Deutsche Bank revises li-ion battery cost forecasts downward to $250/kWh by 2020

In a December 2010 study, Deutsche Bank (DB) analysts revisited some figures posted in its previous report and lowered their projected future costs for automotive batteries. DB’s December 2010 study pegged the cost of lithium-ion batteries at $250 per kWh by 2020, a substantial reduction from the $350 per kWh it forecasted back in November 2009. After speaking with industry experts and numerous automakers, the DB team concluded that its November 2009 forecast for li-ion battery costs was out of date and recrunched the numbers. DB’s price chart (shown above), illustrates the firms updated outlook.

Based upon its forecasted price drop for li-ion batteries, DB concludes that:

The consumer economics of a pure electric start to work without subsidy by about 2020 under this battery price decline scenario. The industry rule of thumb suggests that consumers will consider a 3-4 year payback to be an economic choice. With no subsidy, 2012 electric vehicle models will have a 10+ year payback vs. a typical combustion analog, assuming $3.25/gallon gasoline. With a $7,500/vehicle subsidy in 2012, an electric will have about a 5 year payback. Around 2015, assuming a $4,500/vehicle subsidy, the payback period starts to fall into a range at which consumers will view the economics favorably. By 2020, the economics should be able to more or less stand on their own with subsidy, and a small subsidy would clearly nudge the payback below 3 years.

DB’s December 2010 study can be read in its entirety by clicking here (PDF). Who wants to guess what DB’s outlook will be in late 2011

[Source: Bio Age (PDF)]